Political commentary that’s often biased, but always thoughtful.

Daily Liberal Mapping Project: Lessons for Franken

This is the final article in the Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. To see my analyses of each of Minnesota’s Congressional districts, go here.

Today, I will pull together some of the lessons from previous analyses, and make some district-by-district recommendations for Al Franken. The Senate race is going to be extremely competitive to the end, and Franken needs to maximize his advantages in every precinct if he wants to become our next Senator. I’ve supplemented my analysis with supporting maps; click on the maps for larger versions. To see them in context, you can view the original posts for each district.

Convert the swing voters: CD1, CD3, CD7

All three of these districts lean Republican, with Cook Partisan Voting Indexes of R+1, R+1, and R+6, respectively. However, two of the three have Democratic Representatives, and next year all three may. Why? Because of the high volatility of the voters in these districts. Volatility is a measure of the willingness of voters in the precinct to split their ticket between parties. Franken will have to work hard to convert these voters. Because of these voters’ willingness to split their tickets, Obama and the Congressional candidates may or may not help Franken, and Franken may or may not help them.

Turn out the base: CD4, CD5

CD4 and CD5, largely represented by the central cities vote heavily Democratic. However, their low turnout means that Franken and other Democrats aren’t getting nearly as much of a margin out of these districts as they could be. Franken needs major voter registration and get-out-the vote drives in both of these districts. He can expect a lot of help in that regard from the Barack Obama campaign.

You’re golden: CD8

CD8, home of the Iron Range, should be excellent for Franken. It’s not perfect, but it combines the best of both worlds. Most precincts vote strongly for Democrats. At the same time, turnout is quite good. It would be nice to have a slightly higher proportion of votes and a bit higher turnout, but Franken could better spend his time elsewhere.

Uff-da: CD2, CD6

These districts are quite conservative. El Tinklenberg and Steve Sarvi have the potential for upsets, but it will be tough. Al Franken will lose these districts. His best bet: try to minimize his losses, and compensate for these districts by cranking out voters in CD4 and CD5.

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