From the archives: Walz’s secret to success in CD1

Freshman Representative Tim Walz is widely considered a major rising star within the DFL party. Back in August, I wrote that he needed to take this election seriously; since then, he’s opened up a huge lead. He’s winning this time for the same reason he won last time: in a district that leans Republican (see map below), but that doesn’t just vote down the party line, Walz is reasonable, well-spoken, and one of the hardest workers in Congress.

The key to Walz’s victory is voter volatility. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the volatility map below shows, about half of the the precincts in the district are more volatile in the state median. Walz’s ability to reach out to swing voters is the second reason he’s able to win in the 1st. Of course, part of the reason the map looks as volatile as it does is precisely because of Walz’s success in winning over voters. Nonetheless, the point remains: in a district that leans Republican, Walz relies on voters’ willingness to split tickets. A Congressional candidate without Walz’s charisma and down-to-earth attitude toward policymaking might have trouble in this district

Turnout is good throughout most of the district, although there are a handful of precincts with low turnout. In 2006, turnout didn’t really help one party or the other. When combining turnout with the proportion of the vote, the relationship between blue and red districts doesn’t really change much. Improving turnout could always help Walz by providing a somewhat more comfortable margin of victory. However, the key is really volatility: as long as he can keep winning over the swing voters, he’s in good shape.