There’s an excellent chance that Democrats, both in Minnesota and nationally, could win this election with large enough margins to render the Republicans completely unnecessary. In the U.S. Senate, FiveThirtyEight.com puts the probability of the Democrats winning a filibuster-proof majority at about 31 percent, and the probability of having a 60-seat majority without Joe Lieberman at 20 percent. In the MN Senate, the DFL has a veto-proof majority, and they need just 5 more seats in the MN House to be able to override a Pawlenty veto without Republican help.
A Democratic (or DFL) supermajority would open the door to a lot of policy changes, but I worry that it would also open the door to overzealous lawmakers making policy changes that are a bit too sweeping in nature. Most of all, I’m concerned that the Democrats having ultimate power will ultimatley lead to a backlash in 2010. With that in mind, Democrats need to govern from the center, and use their large majorities to build long-term support for the party. It’s tempting to make as many policy changes as possible before getting thrown out, but that’s a short-sighted way to approach governing. Here’s how the Democrats can build long-term support for the party:
1. Govern from the center. There’s a reason Americans usually vote for divided government: neither party’s extremists have the right answers. The best course of action is usually somewhere in the middle. The Democrats can’t allow our extremists to rule the party. We should be proudly and unapologetically liberal, but we shouldn’t overestimate our mandate.
2. Make policy changes slowly and steadily. While many people are voting for “change” this year, that doesn’t mean they want a revolution within 3 months of the Democrats taking office. Without Republicans gumming up the works, Democrats have a chance to create a “do-something” Congress. However, that’s not the same as a “do-everything” Congress. Voters will see too much action as even worse than too little action. Democrats should clearly articulate a modest agenda, and move through it methodically and transparently.
3. Stay on message and communicate with the voters. Just because the election is over doesn’t mean communication should stop. The Democrats need to be in touch with the voters, explaining what they’re doing and why. It’s crucial to explain why we believe in the policy changes we are making, and how they will impact the voters. If we’re going to hold on to our majorities, voters need to understand and support Democratic policies.
4. Give the Republicans more power than they’ve earned. The Democrats have a chance to put a stop to the rancorous tone in the Capitol by not freezing out the Republicans. Giving the Republicans an important voice on policy issues will ultimately lead to better policies, and it can help thaw the bitter partisanship that has developed in recent years. Of course, the Democrats also need to make it clear that this will only last if the Republicans act in the spirit of cooperation; ultimately, we have the votes to do what we want.
5. Prove that government can be good. One of the biggest difficulties in competing with conservatives over the past 30 years has been their ability to run the government poorly, and then successfully claim that government is the problem. The Democrats need to restore trust in the government. First, we need to show that the government can be a force for good. Second, we need to show once and for all that liberal policies are not about government for the sake of government.
Ultimately, I don’t believe the recent Democratic electoral successes have come because our party has done a good job; they’ve come because the Republicans have done a bad job. After 2008, we can’t just blame the Republicans anymore. We need to show that our party can lead, and provide smart, moderate policy changes. The strategy I’ve outlined here is a start. Over the next year, I’ll have a lot more to say on building a long-term liberal majority.