Often biased, always thoughtful.

From the archives: a two-prong strategy for Madia in CD3

In CD3, a district that has been in Republican hands for 50 years has become one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat. Back in August, I showed why.

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Kids love Paulsen, Women love Coleman?

There are two polls out today that show Republicans gaining in Minnesota. A SurveyUSA poll shows Erik Paulsen barely leading Ashwin Madia, 45-44, and a Rasmussen poll shows Norm Coleman leading Al Franken and Dean Barkley, 43-39-14.

If these polls are accurate, they’re good news for the Republicans. I’m withholding my judgement on that, though, because of some suspicious looking numbers in each.

Here’s the problem in the Senate race:

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More on MN-03: Paulsen “trying to buy the race”

Matt Martin over at MNpublius lays out what’s going on:

Polinaut just broke the news that the MN GOP is buying $110K in ads next week for Erik Paulsen… $110,000!!  But wait, it gets worse, the NRCC has 5 buys (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) for over $390K from yesterday through 28th… $390,375!!!!!  But you’re saying, “well, at least they’re stopping shy of election day.”  Hold on, it gets worse!  Erik Paulsen’s campaign itself is chipping in a cool $275K for ad buys up to November 4th… $275,000!!!  Does your head hurt yet?  Just wait, it gets worse!  Between the 28th and the 4th of November, the RNCC, hold your breath for this one, is spending $305K over 5 different buys… $305,225!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  (my head is exploding).

Without even factoring in the radio buys that the GOP and other Republican interest groups are running in the 3rd as we speak, the above brings the total for GOP major-player (sate party, NRCC, and Paulsen) ad buys to over $1,000,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Republicans are trying to buy this race from us.  They’ve seen Madia working his butt off and they’ve been unable to sell Erik Paulsen on his record, so they’ve turned to the last ditch option the GOP always turns to: break out the big-bucks and attack, attack, attack!

Matt is absolutely right. Please give today.

Negative ads are coming in MN-03!

Now that the National Republicans have changed their minds — again — and decided to give up on Michele Bachmann, their nastiness will be redirected at Ashwin Madia. A boatload of negative ads will be airing against Madia soon, on both TV and the radio.

The NRCC isn’t even the only group that will be attempting to off Madia. MPR’s Tom Scheck reports that the State GOP will be helping, too:

The Minnesota Republican Party has bought ad time to help Erik Paulsen’s Congressional bid. The Republican Party has bought 110 thousand worth of ads at KARE and WCCO. The ads will run in the final week of the campaign. A GOP source said the ads will run on all four Twin Cities broadcast stations.

Ladies and gentleman, be prepared for a lot of nastiness. The Republicans are getting absolutely desperate here. They had already given up on this seat a few weeks ago, but now they’ve lost Bachmann, and they are watching almost every single Congressional seat in Minnesota go blue. This is their last-ditch effort, and make no mistake — it will be disgusting.

Please give now and help Madia rise above the mud that’s going to be flung at him.

Thoughts from the final CD3 debate with Madia, Paulsen, and Dillon

Just like I wrote for the last Senate debate, if you’ve already listened to the rest of the CD3 debates, you didn’t hear anything new last night. Personally, I think that Paulsen really needed something a bit better than “same old, same old” to start making up some ground on Madia. After last night’s relatively tame debate, Paulsen is only going to have one option: negative ads. I hope readers in the 3rd District are able to survive the onslaught that’s coming with their sanity intact.

Some thoughts from the debate:

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Ashwin Madia, as always, was relentlessly on message. So on-message, in fact, that at times it got a little tiresome; I could probably some pretty close to reciting his opening statement word for word by this point.

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One of the biggest reasons I respect Ashwin Madia is that he has the courage to tell the voters that borrowing and spending — and promising everything to everybody — is not sustainable. Election season is the time, as Madia has said, when we promise both tax cuts and spending increases. At serious risk to his political capital, Madia isn’t afraid to tell people that we’re going to need to make sacrifices.

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I continue to be disappointed at conservatives’ willingness to incorrectly blame Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the housing crisis. I’ve explained several times why this is not only wrong, but missing the underlying causes of the housing crisis. I’m concerned that people like Erik Paulsen and David Dillon would fight against properly regulating our economy.

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David Dillon has railed against partisanship and and special interests plenty, but he hasn’t made a convincing case for why he’d be a good Representative.

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Madia is wise to hitch himself to “vote for change.” This race is close, but he is likely to ride Obama’s coattails to victory.

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Erik Paulsen was at the debate, too.

Flailing National Republicans try lying to save Erik Paulsen

The National Republican Congressional Committee, after pulling out of the 3rd district race to save Michele Bachmann, has now decided they can’t save Bachmann, and they’re back to going after Ashwin Madia. The NRCC ad follows the tried and true Republican formula: take a couple of words from a candidate’s statement out of context and imply that they will, in fact, destroy all life as we know it. In this particular ad, it’s taxes. Here’s the discussion the NRCC takes out of context in their ad; especially take a look from about 1:20 to 2:15.

The key passage, at around the 2 minute mark:

If this war is so important that we can ask for sacrifices [from our soldiers], then we can darn well ask the top 1 percent of people in this country to sacrifice their tax cuts to help pay for it. [emphasis added]

That seems reasonable to me. Why should the entire war be paid for by the middle class and our children? Madia, like Obama and other Democrats, supports rolling back Bush’s unprecedented tax cuts for the very wealthiest.

What does the NRCC have to say about it? I’m paraphrasing here, but the gist is that Madia will tax you out of your house and home. Also, he’ll tax your puppies and kittens. See the video below for the ad.

Well, Dear Readers, it’s your choice. Which do you believe: what Ashwin Madia actually said, or what the desperate Republicans say he said?

For Ashwin Madia, the most incredible week ever

As recently as last week, the race for Minnesota’s 3rd District seemed to lean Republican. But then Ashwin Madia had the most incredible week I’ve ever seen. Yesterday, I wrote about it in a piece exclusive to MN Campaign Report:

First, a poll showed him ahead of Erik Paulsen by 5 points. Then, the NRCC canceled a week of advertising for Paulsen. Yesterday, a second poll showed him ahead. And now, team Madia has come out with fundraising numbers that blow even their own previously impressive hauls out of the water.

A source has told MN Campaign Report that, at 2 p.m. today, the Madia campaign will announce that they have raised $997,632 for the quarter. This is a massive number. Madia has now raised over $2 million for his Congressional campaign.

What a week! Two polls showing him in the lead, the National Republicans starting to pull out of the race, and a massive fundraising haul of nearly a million bucks! Keep an eye on Madia, dear readers. He is going to be the first Democrat to represent the 3rd district in over 50 years.

Thoughts on the 3rd district debate

I was unable to make it to last night’s 3rd district debate between Ashwin Madia, Erik Paulsen, and David Dillon. I’m currently listening to it, courtesy of MPR. Here are some thoughts on the debate.

1. The difference between Paulsen and Madia is immediately apparent during the opening statements: Paulsen talks a lot about what is wrong in our country. Madia talks about how to fix it.

2. It was amazing to listen to Erik Paulsen try to run away from his record. After claiming that Ashwin Madia was taking his votes on intelligent design out of context, he repeatedly refused to actually explain what the bill said that he voted for. This lead to a great line from Madia: “I’m going to yield you my time, and you can explain the context to these people.”

3. Ashwin Madia once again showed that he clearly understands the problems facing our nation, the causes of them, and that he’s willing to take on both parties. This was the best line of the night:

We are essentially running our country like Lehman Brothers made their company, which is that we are leveraging everything in this country, because we’ve had politicians for the past several years who would come and tell you this: I’ll give you health care. I’ll give you education. I’ll fight Afghanistan for you. I’ll fight Iraq for you. I’ll fight terrorism for everyone. I’ll give you all health care, and you know what? I’ll cut all your taxes at the exact same time.

This is simply unsustainable, and once again, kudos to Ash for admitting it.

4. I can’t help but wonder whether Paulsen understands how the Bush tax cuts worked. Was this attack on Ash intellectually dishonest, or does Paulsen really think this is how the tax cuts are structured? Paulsen said:

Mr. Madia can’t have it both ways. You can’t say you’re against a $2.3 trillion tax cut and then say you’re for 98 percent of it. That doesn’t make any sense.

Let’s be really clear here. Madia is in favor of tax cuts for 98 percent of Americans. But, because of how warped Bush’s tax cuts were, that’s nowhere near 98 percent of the money. According to news sources pulled together by the DNC, more than 70 percent of the tax savings on investment income went to the top 2 percent. Does Paulsen actually believe these tax cuts benefit the majority of Americans? Maybe he needs to study them some more.

Conservative logic

Maybe the Republicans are just so busy they don’t have time to read all the way to the end.

That would explain this popular conservative debate tactic: quoting a small portion of an out-of-context study, and assuming that nobody will bother to read the rest. Unfortunately for the Republican party, Joe Bodell does his homework. After reading what I’ve got posted below, you’ll see that there are only two possibilities: either Republican party officials are being deliberately dishonest, or they’re genuinely too lazy to read an entire report.

The GOP yesterday gleefully attacked Ashwin Madia’s plan to reduce the cost of Medicare by negotiating drug prices. Before I even go any farther, let me ask: is there anyone out there who seriously thinks that negotiating better prices would somehow fail to save money? I mean, common sense is common sense, right? But fighting hard against common sense and reality, the MN GOP released the following statement:

Ashwin Madia falsely contradicted Erik Paulsen when he said that the Congressional Budget Office reported there would be $30 billion in savings if Medicare Part D were to negotiate for drug prices.  Rep. Paulsen was correct: the Congressional Budget Office has said it would only have a negligible effect on drug prices. (via Republican Press Releases ‘R Us)

Sure, in a way I suppose Paulsen was correct — If you stop reading at just the right moment. Joe Bodell dug up a more complete version of the CBO report:

By itself, giving the Secretary broad authority to negotiate drug prices would not provide the leverage necessary to generate lower prices than those obtained by PDPs and thus would have a negligible effect on Medicare drug spending. Negotiation is likely to be effective only if it is accompanied by some source of pressure on drug manufacturers to secure price concessions. The authority to establish a formulary, set prices administratively, or take other regulatory actions against firms failing to offer price reductions could give the Secretary the ability to obtain significant discounts in negotiations with drug manufacturers. In the absence of such authority, the Secretary’s ability to issue credible threats or take other actions in an effort to obtain significant discounts would be limited.

Gee, do you suppose these actions might be part of Madia’s plan? Do you think it’s possible he actually read the whole thing? Because I know Ashwin Madia; he’s a thoughtful, intelligent guy who has no doubt read more than two sentences of the report.

Oh, those GOP press releases. They put the “diss” back in intellectual dishonesty.

MN-03: Erik Paulsen finally starts participating in campaign

Wow, it’s about time. Erik Paulsen has finally joined the CD3 Congressional campaign, where Ashwin Madia is making major inroads in a district that was once solidly Republican. Apparently, this was enough to break Paulsen out of his hibernation:

Ashwin Madia Campaign Puts up Record Number of Lawn Signs

Visible Displays Suggest Strong Enthusiasm Building for the Iraq Veteran

MAPLE GROVE, MN ― Ashwin Madia, Iraq war veteran and the DFL-endorsed candidate for Congress in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, announced his campaign had placed over 1,500 lawn signs over the weekend of September 6-7, and at households in every city throughout the district.

So Paulsen finally struck back. Did he reveal a large number of his own supporters with lawn signs? No, of course not. He spent a whole bunch of money to purchase huge billboards looking down on the district. Will the voters be impressed? No one can say, but it’s not surprising to see that his former spokesman is.

Voters should note that, once again, Paulsen continues to rely on pictures of himself with Jim Ramstad to win this election. Of course, he’s a lot closer to Michele Bachmann that Jim Ramstad, but that hasn’t stopped him from trying to fool the voters. As a matter of fact, he seems to be under the impression that as long as he has that picture, he doesn’t really have to work very hard.

At around the same time, Paulsen also released his first ad. Once again, late to the party. I’m also impressed about how completely devoid of content Paulsen’s first ad is. But hey, thanks for making your children star in it!

Welcome, Erik, to the campaign. It’s been going on for quite a while now, but I’m sure you’ll get the hang of it.

After the break: the Paulsen ad, and the Madia press release regarding lawn signs

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Paulsen to call in national attack dogs

Hey, have you heard from Erik Paulsen at all? I know I sure haven’t heard much from him. He’s been running this campaign as if he was entitled to the seat, but now, all of the sudden, he’s realized that Ashwin Madia is breathing down his neck. The race is a statistical tie, and voters aren’t buying Paulsen’s claim that he’s a moderate like Jim Ramstad. Madia has already released two excellent ads, and Paulsen hasn’t begun to advertise yet. He’s in trouble!

So what is he going to do? Well, what any good Republican would do — call in the national party to run negative ads against Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia. Matt at MnPublius has the scoop:

the cash-strapped NRCC, with literally dozens of districts predicted to turn blue this fall, is rolling out a big ad buy [in CD3] September 10th. This is a full 20 days before the DCCC has said they’ll launch in the 3rd. This means two things: (1) The NRCC is scared out of their mind. They see Ash outperforming Paulsen by leaps and bounds, while Paulsen sits on his thumbs. (2) The NRCC has realized that if they sit on their thumbs as well any longer, Madia’s going to run away with it. We don’t know for sure, but odds are that the ad will be an attempt to bash Madia’s brains out.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, realizing that Paulsen is in big trouble, is going to spend a big chunk of their scarce resources in CD3 to try to turn the tide back to Paulsen. They’re desperate to win this race, and they think they have a window of opportunity to get out in from. Madia won’t get any national help until the end of the month, which means he needs our help.

Please make a contribution to help Ash fight of the RNCC. We need to help Madia raise $5000 by Saturday night. Let’s do our part!

(Of course, if anyone from the DSCC is reading, maybe you’d like to bump up your date for running ads in CD3?)

Madia is first to advertise in MN-03

As usual, Ashwin Madia’s campaign is a step ahead of Erik Paulsen in the CD3 Congressional race. Madia has released his first ad, called “Running,” and it’s a great one. It highlights Madia’s patriotism, and it’s not about to let you forget that Madia is an Iraq War veteran. See him in his Marines shirt? It’s because he’s a veteran. Ashwin Madia is an Iraq War veteran.

Aside from being a great introduction to Madia, this ad makes me think, once again, about how Madia is doing everything right. He’s out-raising Paulsen, out-debating him, and now he’s the first one on TV. I’m sure once Paulsen gets around to advertising, Madia’s ads will be better. Madia is the only candidate with a real grassroots strategy. He’s knocking on more doors and making more calls than Paulsen, while Paulsen will be content to use ads to try to get his message out. Nonetheless, Madia is advertising first. He’s got Paulsen beat in every way.

This introduction to voters was absolutely necessary, and very well done. All the same, I can’t wait for him to start hitting Paulsen on the issues.

Here’s the ad:

CD3 debate redux

I have a few brief thoughts from the CD3 debate. For full coverage on the debate, see MN Campaign Report, where Joe Bodell has done a great job covering this.

Ashwin Madia was really on message today. Erik Paulsen and David Dillon both did very well, and they sounded reasonable and intelligent. However, people will remember what Madia said, and they won’t remember what Paulsen and Dillon said. Why? Because Madia stuck to key themes and phrases, and hit them over and over. Some of his key ideas from the economy-focused debate:

• We need to investing in people for the future of the economy
• Working families are not the problem with today’s economy
• By implementing simple steps, we can chart a new direction for our economy
• As we chart a new direction for the economy, we might just save the environment along the way

Ash didn’t pander or waver in his positions. He was clear about his positions, he explained them well, and he didn’t hesitate to point out Paulsen’s record on the issues. Early on, it seemed like Paulsen was playing offense; after the first question or two, it was Madia on the offense, continually bringing up Paulsen’s record as Republican majority leader. Paulsen rebutted well, but I think the damage was done.

Paulsen only had one really clear message that he continually returned to: “Jim Ramstad supports me.” But he’s no Jim Ramstad; he’s an extremist right-winger.

David Dillon went after Ash pretty hard during the debate, and didn’t have much to say about Paulsen. It’s clear that he knows who’s in the lead. Ash will have to approach Dillon carefully.

Overall, a great job for Madia! Perhaps more to come later in the day. Feel free to leave your comments below.

Madia has a perfect response to Joe Lieberman

This afternoon came the unsurprising news that Joe Lieberman will be speaking at the Republican National Convention here in Minnesota. He’s sure to spend a significant amount of time talking about the Iraq war, one of his biggest policy differences with his former party, and one of the issues on which John McCain’s positions are the most dangerous. As a former Democrat, it will seem to swing voters that his position on Iraq must be bipartisan and reasonable. The Democrats need to make it clear just how wrong Lieberman is on the war.

Honestly, I don’t know how Lieberman can think he has any credibility on foreign policy. He’s been supporting failed policies in Iraq since the very beginning. Personally, I’d rather listen to someone who was there. Ashwin Madia, an Iraq war veteran, knows that it’s time for a change in Iraq, and today he offered a fantastic rebuttal to Lieberman’s grandstanding on Iraq. Writing at The Hill’s Congress Blog, Madia hit all the right notes. He called for real change in our policy toward Iraq, and he showed just how the war is hurting us here at home:

This war has cost us $600 billion so far with another $10 billion added to the tab every month. That’s in addition to a $9 trillion debt caused by reckless spending and irresponsible borrowing, making it harder for Minnesota’s families to afford gas, food and medicine.

Restoring fiscal responsibility includes a new direction for our foreign policy. That’s why I support a strategic and gradual withdrawal from Iraq that is done in a safe and responsible way.

Madia’s post was right on. The war in Iraq is hurting us both at home and abroad. Not only is the war not making us safer, it’s costing us $10 billion a month. And yet the Republicans dare to lecture the Democratic party on fiscal responsibility? To Madia, that’s exactly the problem with the Republican party:

Senator Lieberman and I do have one thing in common. We’ve both changed political parties. I left the Republican Party in 2002 after it replaced “balance our budget” with “borrow and spend” and after we started a war without a plan for success; a war we did not need.

Since the Republicans will be featuring an ex-Democrat at their convention, it’s only appropriate that the Democrats select an ex-Republican to respond to him. Ashwin Madia would be the perfect choice. He’s from Minnesota, where the convention will be held; he is a fantastic speaker who knows how to communicate the truth about Iraq; and most importantly, he’s a Marine and a true patriot.